- Michael Lewis suggests that the US pandemic response was incentivized to be ineffective.
- The decentralized approach to fighting the pandemic and lack of unification at the top were major issues.
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is not equipped to control disease and has misaligned incentives.
- Short-term political appointments in institutions like the CDC lead to short-term incentive structures.
- Charity Dean, an expert in communicable disease outbreaks, emerges as a symbol of hope in the US pandemic response.
- Risk should be assessed in terms of probabilities rather than relying on narratives.
- Finance, while important, has its own challenges and struggles to be a force for good.
- Young professionals in finance should remember their fiduciary duty and control their expenses.
Michael Lewis, in his book “The Premonition: A Pandemic Story,” examines the misalignment of incentives in the US pandemic response. He argues that people were incentivized to create a bad pandemic response. The decentralized approach to fighting the pandemic and lack of unification at the top were major issues. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is described as not being equipped to control disease and having misaligned incentives.
Short-term political appointments in institutions like the CDC contribute to short-term incentive structures. This creates a lack of long-term thinking and inhibits the ability to address long-term problems effectively.
One character who emerges as a symbol of hope in the US pandemic response is Charity Dean, an expert in communicable disease outbreaks. Dean and a group of doctors called the Wolverines had been sounding the alarm about the COVID-19 pandemic early on but were largely ignored.
Lewis emphasizes the importance of assessing risks in terms of probabilities rather than relying on narratives. He highlights the need for a unified and analytical approach to managing risks.
In terms of finance, Lewis suggests that while there is potential for the industry to have a positive influence on the world, it faces challenges in preserving profitability and innovation. Young professionals entering finance should remember their fiduciary duty and be cautious of the potential conflicts of interest that may arise. Established professionals are advised to control their expenses to avoid being forced into making bad decisions.
Overall, Lewis’s analysis reveals the need for better alignment of incentives, unified approaches to crisis management, and a shift towards analytical thinking when assessing risks.
