Key Points
– Marko Papic’s book “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future” offers insights on how investors can prepare for upcoming events and beat the market.
– Papic emphasizes the importance of focusing on measurable constraints facing policymakers to determine the future, rather than being swayed by politically connected people or media reports.
– The book aims to empower investors with a systematic and repeatable framework for analyzing geopolitics and politics.
In the turbulent year 2020, Marko Papic offers reassurance with his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.” This book presents a framework for geopolitical forecasting, urging investors to focus on measurable constraints facing policymakers to determine the future. In an interview, Papic provides further insight into his approach to geopolitical forecasting and shares his views on current events.
### Framework for Geopolitical Forecasting
Papic’s framework for geopolitical forecasting emphasizes the importance of focusing on the measurable constraints facing policymakers. He argues that these constraints deserve more attention than information from politically connected individuals or media reports. The book strives to empower investors with a systematic and repeatable framework for analyzing geopolitics and politics.
### Geopolitical Shifts in the Financial Industry
Papic highlights the lack of preparedness in the financial industry to adjust to geopolitical paradigm shifts. He encourages investors to move away from relying solely on political risk consultants and instead take a hands-on approach to geopolitical analysis.
### Insights on Emerging Markets
Papic challenges the notion that insights from former politicians and well-connected individuals lead to alpha in developed markets, emphasizing the need for a more systematic approach to geopolitical forecasting. He encourages investors to use his framework to ask the right questions and gain the most from the expertise of well-connected individuals in the field.
### Forecasting in Current Events
Drawing from past experiences, Papic discusses the challenges in geopolitical forecasting, particularly in light of the 2016 US presidential elections. He emphasizes the need for investors to be discerning about the sources of their geopolitical forecasts and to consider the market’s pricing of geopolitical events rather than solely focusing on the odds.
### Impact of Current Events on Geopolitics and the Economy
Papic suggests that the current pandemic and economic crisis may not significantly change geopolitics and the global economy in the long term. He believes that the collective panic induced by the pandemic will dissipate faster than expected and that the paradigm shift was already in progress prior to the pandemic.
### Trends Shaping the Decade and Portfolio Positioning
Papic predicts a multipolar world with economic power shifts, influencing investment strategies. He recommends a position for a USD bear market, bullish commodities, and offers insights into potential regional investment opportunities.
Overall, Papic’s book and insights offer a fresh perspective on geopolitical forecasting and its implications for investors in navigating an uncertain era.
